Optimal transmission and distribution investment decisions under increasing energy scenario uncertainty

Electricity transmission and distribution investment decisions are transforming due to increasing uncertainties in various parameters, driven by factors such as evolving electricity market frameworks. Notable uncertainties include the rising penetration of renewable energy sources (RES) and distributed energy resources (DER) in response to carbon neutrality targets, climate change impacts on operational planning (e.g., hydrology), and the dynamics of variable renewable energy (VRE) like wind and solar photovoltaic. Economic uncertainties, electrification of load and transport, and recent global events, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, further contribute to the complexity.

This report investigates the integration of uncertainties into transmission and distribution planning scenarios,…